Temporal patterns of water quality in the Pantanal floodplain and its contributing Cerrado upland rivers: implications for the interpretation of freshwater integrity

Water quality time series available for major tropical floodplains commonly have low temporal resolutions and irregular sampling frequencies. Here we examine such data using singular spectrum analysis, a non-parametric time series analysis technique, to assess the typical cyclical variations and long-term trends in upland Cerrado and lowland floodplain reaches of three rivers that are tributaries to the Pantanal in Brazil to evaluate ecological state and impact level, and develop recommendations for improved monitoring of Cerrado–Pantanal river systems. Both upland and lowland reaches have their average water quality cycles linked to a monocyclical hydrological regime. Amplitudes of nutrient concentrations (N, P) and Turbidity are higher in the uplands, whereas cyclical oxygen variations are up to two times higher in the floodplain reaches. SSA showed that trend extraction is possible for parameters with lower intra-annual variations and were found to be partially opposing (oxygen) in upland (negative trend) and floodplain (positive trend) stations. Land use intensification in the uplands is reflected by N concentrations in upland reaches. In the floodplain, the Paraguay river was found under a slight TN enrichment regime of about 0.02 mg L^?1 per year between 1995 and 2009. Assuming a fixed budget for institutional water quality monitoring, we recommend a reduction of the 150 registered sampling gauges by environmental agencies in the Brazilian Pantanal and its contribution area, 95 % of them with less than four samples per year, in favor of using the same resources for increased sampling frequency at a smaller number of sites.