Biases in the estimation of the demographic parameters of a snowshoe hare population

1. Survival rates and natalities for a population of snowshoe hares in the Yukon were estimated independently of and simultaneously with estimates of population change during the increase phase of a hare cycle.
2. Simple demographic models are used to show that even though the estimated survival rates and natalities were high relative to previously published estimates, the observed demographic parameters are unable to explain the extent of population increase, and we conclude that some of these parameters must be underestimates.
3. A sensitivity analysis is used to examine the potential influence of changes in these demographic parameters on the population growth rate. During most years of the hare cycle the population growth rate is potentially most sensitive to changes in juvenile postweaning survival. Only during crash years is adult survivorship likely to be a more important determinant of the rate of population change.
4. Examination of previously published data sets on two full population cycles suggests that while survival rates are positively correlated with population growth rates, their incorporation into demographic models results in frequent underestimation of the rate of population increase.