Predicting shifting sustainability trade‐offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change |
| |
Authors: | Gianluca Sarà Tarik C. Gouhier Daniele Brigolin Erika M. D. Porporato Maria Cristina Mangano Simone Mirto Antonio Mazzola Roberto Pastres |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy;2. CoNISMa – Piazzale Flaminio, Roma, Italy;3. Marine Science Center, Northeastern University, Nahant, Massachusetts;4. Bluefarm S.r.l., Venezia Marghera, Italy;5. Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Venezia Mestre, Italy;6. Institute for the Coastal Marine Environment – CNR, Castellammare del Golfo (TP), Italy |
| |
Abstract: | Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio‐temporal shifts in critical trade‐offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m?2 day?1) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade‐offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions. |
| |
Keywords: | aquaculture mechanistic predictive models Mediterranean Sea regional climate models seabass trade‐offs |
|
|