Past attacks influence host selection by the solitary bark beetle Dendroctonus micans

1. A spatio‐temporal study of host selection and local spread of a solitary bark beetle attacking live spruce Dendroctonus micans (Kugelann) was carried out using a combination of standard statistical methods, geostatistical analyses, and modelling. The study was based on data from three plots (150–300 trees, 0.3–1 ha) from 1978 to 1993. All trees were mapped and successful and abortive bark‐beetle attacks on each tree were counted annually. Because the attacked trees usually survived, temporal attack patterns as well as spatial patterns could be analysed. 2. The distribution of successful insect attacks on the trees was slightly aggregative, indicating some degree of choice rather than totally random establishment. 3. The level of yearly individual attacks per tree was very stable, suggesting that D. micans usually leave the host in which they develop. 4. The attacked trees were distributed randomly in the plots; at the study's spatial scale, the insects dispersed freely throughout the plot (no spatial dependence). 5. On the other hand, time dependence was strong; some trees were attacked repeatedly while others were left untouched. 6. Among a choice of scenarios (random attack, fixed variability in individual host susceptibility, induced host susceptibility following random attack), the best fit was obtained with the model involving induced individual host susceptibility. This type of relation to the host tree contrasts strongly with patterns generally described in host–plant relationships (including gregarious, tree‐killing bark beetles), where local herbivore damage results in induced resistance. 7. These results suggest that the first attacks in a new stand are made at random, that all or most of the beetles emerging from a tree disperse and resample the stand, and that they settle preferentially on trees that were colonised successfully by previous generations.