Seasonality matters—The effects of past and projected seasonal climate change on the growth of native and exotic conifer species in Central Europe |
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| Institution: | 1. Chair of Silviculture, Institute of Forest Sciences, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany;2. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK;3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;4. CzechGlobe and Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlá?ská 2, 61137, Czech Republic;1. Professorship for Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany;2. Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA Scotland, UK;3. Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9SY, Scotland, UK;1. Faculty of Forestry, Technical University in Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 24, 960 53, Zvolen, Slovak Republic;2. Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, ?túrova 2, 960 53, Zvolen, Slovak Republic;3. Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 00, Prague 6-Suchdol, Czech Republic;1. Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech Republic;2. Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, Soldmannstraβe 15, 17487 Greifswald, Germany;3. Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Praha 6–Suchdol, Prague, 16521, Czech Republic;1. AgroParisTech, UMR1092, Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt Bois (LERFoB), Centre de Nancy, 14 rue Girardet, F-54000 Nancy, France;2. INRA, UMR1092, Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt Bois (LERFoB), Centre de Nancy-Lorraine, F-54280 Champenoux, France;3. Institut National de l’Information Géographique et Forestière, Laboratoire de l’Inventaire Forestier, 14 rue Girardet, F-54042 Nancy cedex, France;1. Chair of Forest Growth and Yield Science, Department of Life Science Systems, TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-Von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany;2. Dpt. Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences – CSIC, Serrano 115, 28006 Madrid, Spain;3. Forest Research Center, INIA-CSIC, Ctra. A Coruña km 7.5, 28040 Madrid, Spain;4. iuFOR, Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute, University of Valladolid & INIA, Spain;5. Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering (EAGROF), University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain;6. Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO-CERCA, Solsona, Spain;7. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Box 190, 23422 Lomma, Sweden;8. Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones and Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Landuse, University of Göttingen, Büsgenweg 1, Göttingen, Germany;9. Faculty of Forestry, University of Sarajevo, Zagreba?ka 20, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina;10. Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;11. Department of Silviculture, Institute of Forest Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska 159/34, 02776 Warsaw, Poland;12. Department of Plant Production and Forest Resources, Higher Technical School of Agricultural Engineering of Palencia, University of Valladolid, Spain;13. Vytautas Magnus University, Department of Forest Science, Studentu 11, Akademija LT-53361, Kaunas dist, Lithuania;14. Forestry and Game Management Research Institute, Strnady 136, 252 02 Jílovi?tě, Czech Republic;15. Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, UMR Silva, 54000, Nancy, France;p. School of Natural Sciences and Medicine, Ilia State, University, Kakutsa Cholokashvili Ave 3/5, 0162 Tbilisi, Georgia;q. Technical University in Zvolen, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Resource Planning and Informatics, T. G. Masaryka 24, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia;r. Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (LWF), Department Silviculture and Mountain Forest, Germany;s. Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, S-90187 Umeå, Sweden;t. NIBIO, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Pb 115. NO-143, Ås, Norway;u. Latvian State Forest Research Institute Silava, Rigas 111, Salaspils, Latvia;v. Institute of Forestry and Horticulture, Ukrainian National Forestry University, Lviv, Ukraine;w. Department of AGRARIA, Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, 89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy;x. University of Novi Sad, Institute of Lowland Forestry and Environment, Antona ?ehova 13, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia;y. University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture, SP Forestry, Vuka Karad?i?a 30, 71123 Isto?no Sarajevo, Republika Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina;z. Chair of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Institute of Forestry and Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi 5, 51006 Tartu, Estonia;11. Dep. Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences (DISAFA), University of Turin, Italy;12. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, Frederiksberg C, Denmark;13. Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Forest Growth, BOKU, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria;14. Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Wageningen University of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen, The Netherlands;15. Department of Ecology and Silviculture, Faculty of Forestry, University of Agriculture in Krakow, al. 29-Listopada 46 31-425 Kraków, Poland;16. UCLouvain - Université catholique de Louvain, Earth & Life Institute, Croix du Sud 2 box L7.05.09, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;17. INRAE – UR EFNO - Centre de recherche Val de Loire, 45290 Nogent-Sur-Vernisson, France;18. Forst Baden-Württemberg (AöR), Forstbezirk Ulmer Alb, Schloßstr. 34, 89079 Ulm-Wiblingen, Germany;19. Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic;110. Forest & Nature Lab, Ghent University, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium;111. Hochschule für nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (HNEE), FG Waldinventur und Planung, Alfred-Möller-Str.1, D 16225 Eberswalde, Germany;112. Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 2 Gagarin Street, 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria |
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| Abstract: | Norway spruce is one of the economically most important tree species in Central European forestry. However, its high susceptibility to droughts poses a strong challenge to its cultivation under future conditions with likely more frequent and prolonged droughts and shifts in the seasonal climate. To compensate for expected losses of forest areas suitable for the cultivation of spruce, more drought-tolerant species are required. Silver fir and Douglas fir are two potential candidates, which promise lower drought susceptibility and equal or even higher yield when compared to Norway spruce.Using the Black Forest as a regional case study, we assessed the effects of seasonal climate change, including drought stress, on tree-ring width formation of these three economically relevant conifer species over the last 60 years. In addition, we projected potential species-specific growth changes under different climate change scenarios until 2100.Our results suggest that both silver fir and Douglas fir will possibly experience growth increases in a warmer future climate, as predicted under the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, whereas growth of spruce is expected to decline. Moreover, drought susceptibility in silver fir and Douglas fir is lower than in spruce, as shown for past drought events, and their ability to benefit from milder winters and springs could play a major role in their capacity to compensate for drier summers in the near to mid-term future. This study highlights the need to advance our understanding of the processes that drive drought resistance and resilience in tree species to guide management strategies in the face of climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Central Europe Climate change Dendroecology Forest management |
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