我国植被生态系统固碳能力提升潜力空间格局研究

通过植被的光合作用对大气中的CO₂进行收集与捕捉是当前实现"碳中和"目标的重要手段,目前的研究大多是聚焦于当前植被的固碳能力的强弱,而对于当下植被固碳能力提升潜力大小的研究相对较少。为此,基于1982-2017年全球陆表特征参量-植被净初级生产力（GLASS NPP）产品以及Miami模型分别构建遥感观测和气候模型模拟的全国NPP潜在最大值空间分布结果,通过与2017年实际监测的NPP进行比较,计算得到两种不同的全国植被固碳能力提升潜力结果,分别进行空间特征分析,并对比两者冷热点区域空间分布的差异性,最后与我国目前规划的重点生态功能区进行叠加对比,得出以下主要结论：（1）两种方法得到的全国固碳能力提升潜力空间分布整体趋势均表现为"南高北低",且空间分布特征呈现出高度空间自相关特性（空间正相关性,表现为"高高聚集" "低低聚集" ）,但局部差异较大。（2）基于遥感观测为最大潜力值的方法所得到的全国固碳能力提升潜力热点区集中在三个区域,分别分布在四川省、广东省、浙江省以及江苏省境内。基于气候模型模拟为最大潜力值的方法所得到的固碳能力提升潜力热点区域主要分布在以江西省、广东省、广西省为核心的南方8个省份。（3）当前我国重点生态功能区的碳固定潜能并不突出,因此建议有关部门在今后的政策制定过程中将这一方面也加以考虑。

Spatial pattern analysis of carbon sequestration potential of vegetation ecosystem in China

Nowadays, the global CO₂ emissions have seriously exceeded the standard, and the resulting greenhouse effect has seriously affected people''s production and life. Collecting and capturing CO₂ in the atmosphere through vegetation photosynthesis is an important means to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization. Most of the studies focus on the current strength of vegetation carbon sequestration capacity, while there are few studies on the vegetation carbon sequestration potential. In fact, the improvement potential of vegetation carbon sequestration capacity also has important guiding significance for the goal of carbon neutralization. Therefore, this paper constructs the spatial distribution results of national Net Primary Productivity(NPP) maximum potential based on remote sensing observation product GLASS NPP and Miami climate model from 1982 to 2017. By comparing with the actual monitored NPP in 2017, two different national vegetation carbon sequestration potential results are calculated. In order to compare the spatial heterogeneity of the results. The spatial distribution characteristics of the two results are analyzed respectively, and the differences of the spatial distribution of cold and hot spots are compared. Finally, the results are superimposed and compared with the key ecologically functional areas currently planned in China, provide scientific basis for national policy-making. The following main conclusions are drawn:(1) The overall spatial distribution trend of the national vegetation carbon sequestration potential obtained by the two methods is high in the south and low in the north. The spatial distribution characteristics show high spatial autocorrelation characteristics (The main performance is spatial positive correlation, manifested as high-high aggregation and low-low aggregation), but the local difference is large. (2) Based on the method of remote sensing observation as the maximum potential value, the national vegetation carbon sequestration potential hot spots areas are concentrated in three regions, which are distributed in Sichuan Province, Guangdong Province, Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Province, respectively. Based on the climate model simulation as the maximum potential value, the hot spots of vegetation carbon sequestration potential are mainly distributed in eight southern provinces with Jiangxi Province, Guangdong Province and Guangxi Province as the core. Both results show the characteristics of high spatial aggregation (3) At present, the carbon fixation potential of key ecological functional areas in China is not prominent, so it is suggested that relevant departments should also consider this aspect in the future policy-making process. In general, this paper can provide a reference for the related research of vegetation carbon sequestration level and the realization of carbon neutralization goal in China.