Scoring function accuracy for membrane protein structure prediction

We perform a systematic examination of the ability of several different high-resolution, atomic-detail scoring functions to discriminate native conformations of loops in membrane proteins from non-native but physically reasonable, or "decoy," conformations. Decoys constructed from changing a loop conformation while keeping the remainder of the protein fixed are a challenging test of energy function accuracy. Nevertheless, the best of the energy functions we examined recognized the native structure as lowest in energy around half the time, and consistently chose it as a low-energy structure. This suggests that the best of present energy functions, even without a representation of the lipid bilayer, are of sufficient accuracy to give reasonable confidence in predictions of membrane protein structure. We also constructed homology models for each structure, using other known structures in the same protein family as templates. Homology models were constructed using several scoring functions and modeling programs, but with a comparable sampling effort for each procedure. Our results indicate that the quality of sequence alignment is probably the most important factor in model accuracy for sequence identity from 20-40%; one can expect a reasonably accurate model for membrane proteins when sequence identity is greater than 30%, in agreement with previous studies. Most errors are localized in loop regions, which tend to be found outside the lipid bilayer. For the most discriminative energy functions, it appears that errors are most likely due to lack of sufficient sampling, although it should be stressed that present energy functions are still far from perfectly reliable.