| 北带马尾松毛虫灾害发生级别的气候因子预报模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 尚忠海,光增云,李世海,杜彩琴,段霞,周绪恒,熊满祥.北带马尾松毛虫灾害发生级别的气候因子预报模型研究[J].生物数学学报,1997(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 尚忠海 光增云 李世海 杜彩琴 段霞 周绪恒 熊满祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南省森防站(尚忠海)，河南省林勘院(光增云)，信阳林技站(李世海)，河南农业大学(杜彩琴)，桐柏林业局(段霞)，商城森防站(周绪恒)，罗山林技站(熊满祥) |
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| 摘 要： | 以河南省四县马毛尾松毛虫灾害20多年的观测数据及相应27项气象资料为研究材料，采用双重筛选逐步回归的方法，通过计算机处理，建立了15个我国北带马尾松毛虫灾害的预报模型．经回测历史符合率为60％～90％．本研究的创新在于以方差为权重客观地将三个预报指标加权平均为一个综合指标，并据此划分出灾害的3个等级，使其更具科学性．
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| 关 键 词： | 北带马尾松毛虫 双重筛选逐步回归 有虫株率 虫口密度 |
Study on the Model of Climatic Factor Forecast Occurning in Difference of North Dendrolimus Punctatus Damage |
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| Shang Zhonghai,Guang Zengyun,et al.Study on the Model of Climatic Factor Forecast Occurning in Difference of North Dendrolimus Punctatus Damage[J].Journal of Biomathematics,1997(Z1). |
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| Authors: | Shang Zhonghai Guang Zengyun |
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| Abstract: | The paper gives 20 years survey data of Dendrolimus punctatus'damage and 27 item of meterological research materials occurring in four counties of Henon province,and sets up 15 observaion models of Dendrolimus punctatus'damage in the norther China by using ASSHG and computer process.Its coincidence rate gets up 60-90 percent.The innovation of the research aims at variance as weight and objectively weighs 3 forecast index averagely as an integrated index, and divides the damage into 3 degrees. |
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| Keywords: | North Dendrolimus punctatus ASSHG rate of plant with insect insect density |
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