2010-2019年不同海湾迁徙水鸟栖息地适宜性变化对比研究

滨海湿地是迁徙水鸟的重要迁飞通道和主要栖息地，评估沿海迁徙水鸟栖息地适宜性及变化态势能为栖息地的合理规划与管理提供科学参考，对迁徙水鸟的保护有重要意义。选择紧邻城市和乡村的深圳湾和雷州湾为研究区，在水鸟栖息地生态系统类型分类的基础上，通过层次分析法确定水鸟栖息地适宜性评价因子，设计栖息地、食物、水分、人类干扰条件及其子类的权重，对栖息地适宜性进行等级划分，分析比较2010-2019年迁徙水鸟栖息地适宜性的时空分布差异，探索适宜性变化差异的原因并给出合理化建议。结果表明：（1）2010-2019年深圳湾有193.4 hm²强干扰区域转变化为中等及弱干扰；雷州湾有16.36 hm²的中等干扰转化为弱、无干扰；（2）深圳湾栖息地适宜性以中等适宜类型为主，2010年和2019年面积占比分别为83.74%和88.71%；雷州湾栖息地适宜性主要以较适宜和中等适宜类型为主，2010年面积占比为86.72%，2010-2019年面积占比基本不变，总体适宜性高于深圳湾。（3）2010-2019年，深圳湾不适宜和较适宜面积分别减少245.54 hm²和26.37 hm²，均转化为中等适宜类型；雷州湾有24.31 hm²的中等和较适宜栖息地转化为适宜类型。

Comparison of habitat suitability variation of migrating waterbirds in different bays from 2010 to 2019

Coastal wetlands are of great importance for biodiversity conservation as wintering, stop-over, and breeding sites for migratory waterbirds. Assessment on habitat suitability provides a scientific basis for the rational planning and management of waterbirds habitats. In this paper, urban wetlands in Shenzhen Bay and rural wetlands in Leizhou Bay were selected as the study areas. High-resolution remote sensing images were used to extract the habitat types of waterbirds. The assessment factors and their weights were determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). According to the main ecological factors such as food, moisture, and human disturbances, the suitability of each habitat was graded. The study compared the differences in the spatio-temporal distribution of habitat suitability of migratory waterbirds from 2010 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the driving forces, recommendations for migratory waterbird habitat conservation were proposed. The results show that:(1) from 2010 to 2019, 193.4 hm² strong disturbance areas were transformed into medium and weak disturbance areas in Shenzhen Bay, while 16.36 hm² medium disturbance areas were transformed into weak and no disturbance areas in Leizhou Bay. (2) The Shenzhen Bay was dominated by medium suitable habitats, with 83.74% and 88.71% of the total area in 2010 and 2019; while the Leizhou Bay was mainly dominated by sub-suitable and medium suitable habitats, with 86.72% of the total area in 2010 and less variation in 2019. The overall suitability of Leizhou Bay was higher than that of Shenzhen Bay. (3) The unsuitable and sub-suitable habitats in Shenzhen Bay decreased by 245.54 hm² and 26.37 hm² from 2010 to 2019, which were transformed into moderate suitable habitats; while 24.31 hm² moderate and sub-suitable areas were transformed into suitable habitats in Leizhou Bay.