京津冀地区城市化对典型生态系统服务供需关系的影响

京津冀地区是中国经济最发达、人口最密集的地区之一，快速的城市化进程严重影响了生态系统服务的供需关系。为了使京津冀地区在未来的城市化进程中实现社会经济发展与生态环境保护中的可持续协调发展，需要正确理解城市化对生态系统服务供需的影响，为京津冀地区生态环境管理提供参考依据。因此，基于Pearson相关性、随机森林、双变量局部空间自相关等方法探究京津冀地区不同城市化强度区域内生态系统服务供需的匹配关系以及对城市化对生态系统服务供需的影响特征。研究发现：2000-2020年间，京津冀地区城市化综合水平涨幅达到148.15%；碳储存和生境质量服务赤字区域扩增明显，食物生产与PM_2.5去除服务盈余区域有所增加，但各项生态系统服务供需空间错配性较强；城市化对生态系统服务供需比具有显著的负相关关系；既有城市化区域生态系统服务对空间城市化和人口城市化敏感性较强，城市化扩张区域和农村区域对空间城市化敏感性较强，空间城市化是影响生态系统服务供需关系的主要因素；不同城市化水平区域内城市化与生态系统服务供需比的错配特征具有显著差异。因此，本文探究了不同城市化强度区域内城市化指标对生态系统服务供需影响的差异性，为实现京津冀地区的城市化与生态系统服务的协同发展提供科学依据。

Impacts of urbanization on the supply and demand relationship of typical ecosystem services in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the most economically advanced and densely populated regions in China. The relationship between ecosystem service supply and demand has been significantly affected by the rapid urbanization process. It is essential to accurately understand the impact of urbanization on the supply and demand of ecosystem services to provide a reference basis for ecological and environmental management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This will enable the realization of sustainable and coordinated development of social-economic development and ecological-environmental protection in the future urbanization process. Therefore, this study investigated the matching relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services in various urbanization intensity regions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, as well as the impact characteristics on the supply and demand of ecosystem services, based on Pearson correlation, random forest, local spatial autocorrelation, and other methods. According to the study, the overall level of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased by 148.15% between 2000 and 2020. Although the surplus areas for food production and PM_2.5 removal services have grown, and the deficit areas for carbon storage and habitat quality services have significantly shrunk, the spatial mismatch between the supply and demand of ecosystem services was severe. The supply-demand balance for ecosystem services and urbanization were significantly inversely correlated. Ecosystem services in the developed areas were more sensitive to population and spatial urbanization than ecosystem services in the developing and rural areas. The primary factor affecting the relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services was spatial urbanization. At various levels of urbanization, there were significant differences in the mismatch characteristics of urbanization and the ecosystem services supply-demand ratio. Therefore, this paper explores the differences in the impact of urbanization indicators on the supply and demand relationship of ecosystem services in regions with different urbanization intensities, and provides a scientific basis for realizing the coordinated development of urbanization and ecosystem services in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.