基于集对分析的京津冀区域可持续发展协调能力评价

区域发展的协调能力是区域可持续发展的重要表征之一。采用社会经济各相关部门的统计数据及资料,构建区域可持续发展评价指标和各级评价标准,利用集对分析中的同异反态势排序的协调发展评价模型实证分析了京津冀地区2000—2010年间的可持续发展协调能力。结果表明:(1)2000—2004年间北京和天津属于不协调发展,2006—2010年逐渐步入弱协调发展,但研究时段内河北省始终为不协调发展。(2)京、津和冀协调能力指数2010年相比2000年分别提高27.86%、8.87%和18.51%,各省域协调发展改善均不明显且步伐不一。(3)对京津冀区域各省域的发展提出了具体建议,但仍要加强各地区的合作和明确各自功能地位尤其重要。研究结果可以为京津冀整体规划的制定及实施提供科学依据和指导,也为环渤海经济圈可持续发展研究奠定了基础。

Assessment on coordinative ability of sustainable development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on set pair analysis

The coordinative ability of regional development is one of the main characterizations of regional sustainable development. The assessment indicators and standard system of regional sustainable development have been established based on the model of coordinative development of society, economy and ecological environment in set pair analysis with integrating of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, according to the statistical data and materials from relative government agencies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the coordinative ability of sustainable development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region by the method mentioned above. This study calculated the value of the coordinative ability index and the degree of social development, economical development and environmental damage, with the correspondence between the index and sustainable development coordinative ability described. By adopting similar, dissimilar and inverse relative degree and state sorting analysis from set pair analysis, the coordinative ability of sustainable development during 2000-2010 in the study region was appraised. The result shows that there is a better trend despite slight amelioration. In the light of time sequence, in this paper, the value of coordinative ability index in Beijing increased by 27.86% from the year of 2000 to 2010, which in Tianjin and Hebei are 8.87% and 18.51% respectively. The interval of little, weak, elementary and high coordinative ability are given. Beijing and Tianjin belongs to incompatible development from the year of 2000 to 2004, the coordinative ability index of which reaches the interval of weak coordination after 2006, while Hebei is always in the stage of incompatible development during the same period. The current situation in Beijing and Tianjin is better, according to the coordinative ability index about the districts, due to rapid social and economical development and slight downside of environment damage, even though the destruction to ecological environment is still heavily. It is also demonstrated that slow-growing of the social and economical development is same to with tiny change of environment damage degree in Hebei. Therefore raising forest coverage rate and solving the water problem are the primary measures to achieve sustainable and coordinative development, while some things, such as industrial structure, technology, medical treatment and education, are more urgent for Tianjin and Hebei besides that. Though the study region is the core area of Bohai Rim, one of the three leading economic zones in China, the conflict between regional economic development and the environment is becoming serious. It is exigent to research the coordinative ability of regional sustainable development due to that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region created artificially does not balance the inconsistent development situation among districts. The radiation effect to Hebei was not brought by excessive concentration of industry development in Beijing and Tianjin derived from administrative division, leading to negative development in entire region. As for Hebei itself, however, one's own interests of the municipalities in the province are concerned overly and short of deep collaboration and communication among municipalities.In this sense, the application in the assessment of coordinative ability of sustainable development is significant and worth to be spread. The results presented in this study would provide scientific basis and direction to formulation and implementation for whole planning of Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, and also lay the foundation for sustainable development research of Bohai Rim.