Wintering areas predict age‐related breeding phenology in a migratory passerine bird

Understanding connections between breeding, stopover and wintering grounds for long‐distance migratory birds can provide important insight into factors influencing demography and the strength of carry‐over effects among various periods of the annual cycle. Using previously described, multi‐isotope (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, δ²H) feather isoscapes for Africa, we identified the most probable wintering areas for house martins Delichon urbica breeding at Badajoz in southwestern Spain. We identified two most‐probable wintering areas differing in isotopic signature in west Africa. We found that the probability to winter in the isotopic cluster two was related to age and sex of individuals. Specifically, experienced males (i.e. two years or older) winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than experienced females, whereas first‐year females winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than first‐year males. In addition, wintering area was correlated with breeding phenology, with individuals wintering in the isotopic cluster two initiating their clutches earlier than those wintering in the isotopic cluster one. For birds wintering in the isotopic cluster two, there was no relationship between age and clutch initiation date. In contrast, young birds wintering in the isotopic cluster one initiated their clutches earlier than experienced birds wintering in this area. There was no significant correlation between wintering area and clutch size or the number of fledglings produced. We hypothesize that the relationship among social status, population density and winter habitat quality should be the most important driver of the carry‐over effect we found for this population.