天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程

在草原牧区,家庭牧场作为取代游牧制度而产生的新生事物,其对极端气候响应过程的研究尚未见报道.以“极端气候敏感性-影响途径-响应方式”为分析框架,基于问卷调查方法,研究了天山北坡山地草原牧民对极端气候的响应过程.结果表明:1)天山北坡1980-2009年冬季雪灾、秋季旱灾风险趋于增大,家庭牧场草料储备不足、畜种结构经济驱动型增加了对极端气候的敏感性；2)旱灾、雪灾是影响家庭牧场的主要极端气候类型,其作用介质为牲畜和草场；3)自适应与外力适应是牧户响应极端气候的2种主要形式,其中购买草料是最主要的响应策略；4)通过Probit模型估计显示,极端气候认知、家庭特征、资产状况与牧户间适应行为选择有显著的关系.研究认为,家庭牧场对极端气候短期响应的反馈过程主要围绕草、畜2因子展开,基于降水波动的周期性,牧户长期响应形成了家庭牧场生产周期.

The response process to extreme climate events of the household compound system in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain

The household pasture is a new alternative grazing pattern, replacing nomadic way. The study on the response process of household compound system to extreme climate has not been reported. Taking "extreme climate sensitivity-impact way-response mode" as the analysis framework, the herders' response process to extreme climate is conducted in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain by means of questionnaire. The results show that: 1) The risk index of winter snowstorm and autumn drought increased with years in 1980-2009. Moreover, the less forage and feed structure driven by market economy make the household pasture more sensitive to extreme climate; 2) Drought and snowstorm are the main extreme climate types which influence households by livestock and pasture; 3) Self-adaption and external adaption are the main response model of herder to extreme climate, and buying forage is the main response strategy; 4) Probit model shows that the herders' adaptive behaviors have significant relationship with extreme climate perception by herders, family characteristics and properties. The results indicate that the short-term response and feedback of household to extreme climate events primarily involved two factors, grass and livestock. In addition, the long-term response of herder to the periodic precipitation fluctuations promotes the formation of production cycle of household pasture.