Coral reef environmental science: truth versus the Cassandra syndrome

In 1970, coral reef science was warned that the crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci, might cause the extinction of scleractinian corals in the Pacific Ocean. Now, 20 years later we can fortunately say that this alarm was almost certainly too severe. Many reefs were devastated by the starfish, but none are extinct, none have disappeared and many are in various stages of recovery. But now in the 1990's a new alarm is being sounded. This time the concern is over widespread destruction of coral reefs by elevated surface temperatures. Once again a few scientists have issued a dire warning that these events may represent a harbinger of ocean warming caused by the Greenhouse Effect. Has not Acanthaster taught coral reef science a lesson? The debate is far from over but this time the mood in general is not one of over-reaction. This time the Cassandras will be tested by the truth of careful experimentation, long-term monitoring and objective interpretation. Coral reef science appears to have come of age.