气候变化情景下天宝岩国家级自然保护区森林景观演替长期动态模拟

气候变化将会对森林树种结构、空间结构以及林龄结构等产生重大影响，准确预测森林景观演替对未来气候变化的响应，不仅能够为科学管理森林生态系统提供理论依据，而且对制定生物多样性保护与珍稀物种保护策略也具有重要意义。本文运用LANDIS Pro 7.0与LINKAGES模型，模拟天宝岩国家级自然保护区8个树种在2种不同气候变化情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下未来300年的森林植被演替动态，分析森林景观格局变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：毛竹、马尾松、猴头杜鹃、长苞铁杉以及杉木的潜在面积分布与景观格局指数对气候变化的响应较为显著。在气候变化情景下，各树种的景观分维度均介于1.03—1.08,保护区内各景观斑块相对简单规则。毛竹、猴头杜鹃和杉木聚集度下降趋势明显而斑块密度显著上升，长苞铁杉随演替进行面积逐渐减少而聚集度相对较高且斑块密度剧增，马尾松斑块密度缓慢增加而聚集度先降后升，随气候变化这些树种的景观完整度都遭到了不同程度的破坏，且在RCP8.5气候情景下景观破碎化更严重。而气候变化对阔叶林与柳杉的影响则较小，且阔叶林在演替期间斑块密度下降而聚集度稳中有增，潜在面积分布呈现出良好的...

Long-term dynamic simulation of forest landscape succession in Tianbaoyan National Nature Reserve under climate change scenarios

Climate change will have a significant impact on forest tree species structure, spatial structure and forest age structure. Accurately predicting the response of forest landscape succession to future climate change not only provides a theoretical basis for scientific management of forest ecosystems, but also plays an important role in formulating strategies for biodiversity conservation and rare species conservation. In this study, LANDIS Pro 7.0 and LINKAGES models were used to simulate forest landscape succession dynamics of eight tree species in Tianbaoyan National Nature Reserve under two different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the next 300 years, so as to analyze the forest vegetation landscape pattern change characteristics and its response to climate change. The results showed that the potential area distribution and landscape pattern index of Phyllostachys hetericycla, Pinus massoniana, Rhododendron simiarum, Tsuga longibracteata, and Cunninghamia lanceolata had significant responses to climate change. Under the climate change scenario, the fractal dimension index of each species ranged from 1.03 to 1.08, indicating that each landscape patch in the reserve was relatively simple and regular. For Phyllostachys hetericycla, Rhododendron simiarum and Cunninghamia lanceolate, the contagion index decreased while the patch density increased significantly. For Tsuga longibracteata, the contagion index was relatively high and patch density increased with the gradual decrease of area during succession. For Pinus massoniana, patch density increased slowly while contagion index first decreased and then increased. These results indicated that landscape integrity of these species was damaged to varying degrees with climate change, and landscape fragmentation was more serious under RCP8.5 climate scenario. However, climate change had no significant effect on broad-leaved forest and Cryptomeria fortunei. And for broad-leaved forest, the patch density decreased during succession while the patch aggregation increased steadily, and the potential area distribution showed a good momentum of development. Therefore, with the change of climate, the forest landscape succession in Tianbaoyan Nature Reserve will eventually evolve towards the community composition of evergreen broad-leaved forest, supplemented by mixed coniferous broad-leaved forest. And the forest landscape pattern of the nature reserve is more sensitive to climate change.