昆虫多状态发育的生存分析

针对昆虫种群变态发育过程,本文给出了一个多状态生存函数的模型。使用生存分析的方法对模型进行丁分析。本文还对有关的生存参数如各状态的死亡风险,发育风险,年龄特征死亡率,年龄特征发育率以及状态发育历期等进行了讨论并且给出了它们的极大似然估计值。关于马铃薯块茎蛾数值例子的分析表明所提出的摸型用来描述昆虫种群的发育过程是有效的。本文的结论可以做为组建描述昆虫种群多状发育的年龄一状态特征生命表的理论基础。

A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS OF MULTISTAGE DEVELOPMENT OF INSECT

A multistage model of survival function describing metamorphisis developing Pocess of insect was Proposed in this paper. The survival Parameters such as the death hazard, the developmental hazard, the age specific death rate, the age specific developmental rate and the developmental duration for each stage are discussed from the model. The maximum likelihood estimations for them are given.A numerical example for potato tuberworms has shown the effectiveness of this model for describing the developmental process of an insect population. It will be a theoretical basis for constructing an age-stage life table describing a multistage developmental process of insect.