An extension of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model for continuous covariates with application to Microtus pennsylvanicus

Recent developments in the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for analyzing capture-recapture data have focused on allowing the capture and survival rates to vary between individuals. Several methods have been developed in which capture and survival are functions of auxiliary variables that may be discrete, constant over time, or apply to the population as a whole, but the problem has not been solved for continuous covariates that vary with both time and individual. This article proposes a new method to handle such covariates by modeling changes over time via a diffusion process and using logistic functions to link the variable to the CJS capture and survival rates. Bayesian methods are used to estimate the model parameters. The method is applied to study the effect of body mass on the survival of the North American meadow vole, Microtus pennsylvanicus.