Climate and change in oceanic ecosystems: The value of time-series data

The consequences of climatic change for the structure and function of oceanic ecosystems are of considerable current interest. A predictive, mechanistic model of these consequences based on our scanty knowledge of the dynamics of the systems' components seems unlikely: a complex set of simultaneous partial differential equations depicting population interactions and transfer rates of energy and materials would be necessary. A second approach is simply to measure the phenomenology of variations in both climate and ecosystem components, for the purpose of detecting shared patterns. Two studies of the latter type have been done. Both have been successful in revealing relationships between climatic variation and large-scale, large-amplitude, low-frequency biological variability. Both sets of results can provide models for the prediction of consequences, and both can serve as baselines for the definition of 'change'.