Ecological Risk Assessment and Quantitative Consequence Analysis

Ecological risk actually refers to two separate things. First, risk to the environment as a result of human activity. Contaminated sites are an example. Second, risk to the biota—flora, fauna, and people—as a result of environmental hazards. Geophysical risk arising from natural hazards is an example. Risk is a combination of likelihoods and consequences. This article examines methods used to quantify the consequences. At the general level, such methods are linked to the methods used to quantify the likelihoods and thus to quantify the risks. It is possible to use the existing frameworks of risk management, health risk assessment, and ecological risk analysis to develop a risk management framework that is suitable for ecological risk assessment. The framework consists of the following steps:

1. Determine concernsby using risk assessment techniques for various scenarios.

2. Identify the consequences by systematically identifying hazards.

3. Undertake calculations by using relevant models.

4. Evaluate certainties, uncertainties, and probabilities involved in the calculations of the vulnerability and of the exposure.

5. Compare with criteriato assess the need for further action.

6. Determine and act on options to control, mitigate, and adapt to the risk.

7. Communicatethe results to those who need to know.