厦门市三个产业土地利用变化的敏感性

沿海城市人类生存和发展依赖于海岸带生态系统所提供的各类生态系统服务。伴随城市化进程的加快和开发利用程度的提高，沿海城市生态系统受到自然和人类活动越来越大的压力，正面临着剧烈的环境问题，如气候变化、海平面上升、海岸侵蚀等，各种尺度的海岸带脆弱性研究日益引起诸多学者的关注。敏感性是脆弱性分析中的主要因素之一，敏感性指在系统内部、系统与系统之间、复合系统之间相互作用的关系中，用来表征某个系统应对其内部或外部因素变化的响应程度。土地利用变化是城市化过程的集中体现，沿海城市土地利用变化深刻影响了区域生态系统服务的供给、需求和空间配置，进而影响依赖于这些服务的社会产业部门。以厦门市为例，识别沿海城市3个主要产业——渔业、港口航运业、滨海旅游业依赖的主要生态系统服务，构建沿海城市产业部门的土地利用变化敏感性指数，利用生态系统服务价值变化率与土地利用强度变化率的比值对产业部门在土地利用变化背景下的敏感性响应灵敏程度进行表征。计算结果表明，渔业的生态系统服务价值由1987年的1.52610^9元，减小为1992年的1.48510^9元，增加为2002年的2.61410^9元，再下降为2007年的1.11310^9元；港口航运业的生态系统服务价值由1987年的2.13810^9元下降为1992年的1.96310^9元，增加为2002年的2.18710^9元，再减小为2007年的1.85410^9元；滨海旅游业的生态系统服务价值由1987年的2.05610^9元下降为1997年的1.92510^9元，增加为2002年的2.07310^9元，再减小为2007年的2.03810^9元。以1987年为基准年，1992年、1997年、2002年和2007年厦门市渔业敏感性指数分别为0.377、2.692、7.815、3.211，呈现增加-减小的变化；港口航运业敏感性指数分别为1.169、0.474、0.251、1.578，呈现减小-增加的变化；滨海旅游业敏感性指数分别为0.814、0.743、0.091、0.101，呈现减小-增加的变化。在研究结果基础上，探讨了各个产业部门的土地利用变化敏感性响应机制，并且提出未来研究的方向。

The sensitivity of Xiamen's three industrial sectors to land use changes

Human survival and development in coastal cities rely on a range of ecosystem services provided by coastal ecosystem. With the rapid urbanization and the increased exploitation and development, coastal cities' ecosystems are under increasing pressure. Due to diverse natural and human pressure, many coastal cities are experiencing acute environmental problems, such as climate change, sea level rise, land use change, coastal erosion, pollution, degradation of dunes and saline intrusion to coastal aquifers and rivers. The coastal city's vulnerability to both human and natural influences is particularly challenging. Over the last decade, backed by multidisciplinary collaborations in sustainability sciences, many scholars have become increasingly aware of coastal vulnerability to global changes at all relevant scales. The presence of a perturbation or stress, sensitivity of the affected entity and the system's capacity to cope or respond (resilience) are major elements in vulnerability analysis of a coupled human-environment system. Sensitivity in this sense is defined as the interaction within the system, between the systems or inside the complex system used to characterize the response level the system according to changes in its internal or external factors. Land use change is the embodiment of the process of global urbanization. Land use changes of coastal city impact the supply, demand and space allocation of the regional ecosystem services, and further make influences on the social industrial sectors depending on these ecosystem services. Taking Xiamen city for example, this paper identified the main ecosystem services that three coastal industrial sectors fishing sector, port and shipping sector, and coastal tourism sector depended on. Then the Sensitivity Index (SI) to land use changes of industrial sectors was constructed, which used the ratio of the variation of ecosystem service values to the variation of land use intensity to characterize industrial sector's sensitivity to land use changes. The results showed that the total ecosystem service values of fishing sector decreased from 1.526×10⁹ Yuan in 1987 to 1.485×10⁹ Yuan in 1992, and increased to 2.614×10⁹ Yuan in 2002, then decreased to 1.113×10⁹ Yuan in 2007. The total ecosystem service values of port and shipping sector went down from 2.138×10⁹ Yuan in 1987 to 1.963×10⁹ Yuan in 1992, then rose to 2.187×10⁹ Yuan in 2002 and dropped to 1.854×10⁹ Yuan in 2007. The total ecosystem service values of coastal tourism sector decreased from 2.056×10⁹ Yuan in 1987 to 1.925×10⁹ Yuan in 1997, then went up to 2.073×10⁹ Yuan in 2002 and dropped slightly to 2.038×10⁹ Yuan in 2007. Compared with the result of 1987, the SI of fishing sector in year 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007 were 0.377, 2.692, 7.815, 3.211 respectively, which showed an increase-drop trend. The SI of port and shipping sector in year 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 were 1.169, 0.474, 0.251, 1.578 respectively, which represented a drop-increase trend. The SI of coastal tourism sector in year 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 were 0.814, 0.743, 0.091, 0.101 respectively, which demonstrated a drop-increase trend. Based on the results, a discussion about the response mechanism of the industrial sector's sensitivity to land use changes was conducted. The study also presented a theoretical instruction for future research.