基于支持向量回归的棉铃虫蛹发育历期估测

温度与发育速率关系模拟是昆虫学研究的一个重要内容, 传统基于经验风险最小的非线性参数模型(Logan模型、Lactin模型和王氏模型)存在诸多弊端。本文基于结构风险最小的改进支持向量回归（SVR）研究温度与棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹发育历期关系。结果表明: 与传统非线性模型相比, SVR模型性能优异; 基于全部92个样本, SVR模型拟合和留一法预测的决定系数R²分别为0.998和0.996, 估测的蛹期三基点温度更可信。从全部样本中依温度均匀选取部分样本实施独立预测, 当训练集为20个样本时, SVR模型独立预测的R²为0.981, 优于传统非线性模型中独立预测最佳的Lactin模型（R²=0.958）; 当训练集进一步减少到12个样本时, SVR模型的R²仅降低到0.964, 而传统非线性模型均已不适用。结果提示SVR模型在小样本情况下较传统非线性模型优势明显, 在昆虫发育历期估测建模中有应用前景。

Estimating pupal developmental duration of Helicoverpa armigera(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae)with support vector regression

Simulating the relationship between temperature and developmental rate is an important content in entomology research. The traditional non-linear models, including Logan model, Lactin model and Wang model, however, have the disadvantage of utilizing information incompletely, over-fitting, etc. In the current paper, an improved support vector regression (SVR) model has been developed to analyze the relationship between temperature and pupal development of the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera). The results showed that the SVR had a higher performance on model-fitting and predict ability than other non-linear models based on the observed data (92 samples), with determination coefficients (R²) of 0.998 and 0.996, respectively. Estimation of the three fundemental points of temperature of the pupal stage with the improved SVR was more credible. On the basis of 20 samples, the Lactin model had the highest performance with R² of 0.958 among the mentioned traditional non-linear models, but it was still obviously lower than that of the improved SVR with R² of 0.981. When the number of samples was reduced to 12, the R² of SVR slightly declined to 0.964, while the traditional non-linear models were not applicable to the independent prediction any more. The results suggest that the improved SVR is superior in dealing with small sample set than traditional non-linear models, and the improved SVR may be useful in forecasting outbreaks of pests and artificial breeding of insects.