Prospective validation of the ABCD2 score for patients in the emergency department with transient ischemic attack

Background:

The ABCD2 score (Age, Blood pressure, Clinical features, Duration of symptoms and Diabetes) is used to identify patients having a transient ischemic attack who are at high risk for imminent stroke. However, despite its widespread implementation, the ABCD2 score has not yet been prospectively validated. We assessed the accuracy of the ABCD2 score for predicting stroke at 7 (primary outcome) and 90 days.

Methods:

This prospective cohort study enrolled adults from eight Canadian emergency departments who had received a diagnosis of transient ischemic attack. Physicians completed data forms with the ABCD2 score before disposition. The outcome criterion, stroke, was established by a treating neurologist or by an Adjudication Committee. We calculated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting stroke 7 and 90 days after visiting the emergency department using the original “high-risk” cutpoint of an ABCD2 score of more than 5, and the American Heart Association recommendation of a score of more than 2.

Results:

We enrolled 2056 patients (mean age 68.0 yr, 1046 (50.9%) women) who had a rate of stroke of 1.8% at 7 days and 3.2% at 90 days. An ABCD2 score of more than 5 had a sensitivity of 31.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.1–47.5) for stroke at 7 days and 29.2% (95% CI 19.6–41.2) for stroke at 90 days. An ABCD2 score of more than 2 resulted in sensitivity of 94.7% (95% CI 82.7–98.5) for stroke at 7 days with a specificity of 12.5% (95% CI 11.2–14.1). The accuracy of the ABCD2 score as calculated by either the enrolling physician (area under the curve 0.56; 95% CI 0.47–0.65) or the coordinating centre (area under the curve 0.65; 95% CI 0.57–0.73) was poor.

Interpretation:

This multicentre prospective study involving patients in emergency departments with transient ischemic attack found the ABCD2 score to be inaccurate, at any cut-point, as a predictor of imminent stroke. Furthermore, the ABCD2 score of more than 2 that is recommended by the American Heart Association is nonspecific.There are approximately 100 visits to the emergency department per 100 000 population for transient ischemic attack each year.¹ Although often considered benign, transient ischemic attack carries a risk of imminent stroke. Studies have shown that the risk of stroke is 0.2%–10% within 7 days of the first transient ischemic attack, and this risk increases to 1.2%–12% at 90 days.^2–9 Stroke continues to be the leading cause of disability among adults and the third-leading cause of death in North America.^10,11 Identifying people with transient ischemic attack who are at high risk of stroke is an opportunity to prevent stroke.^3,4 However, urgent investigation of all transient ischemic attacks would require substantial resources. Three studies have attempted to develop clinical decision rules (i.e., scores) for assessing whether a patient with transient ischemic attack is at high risk of stroke.^9,12,13 Combined, these studies led to the development of the ABCD2 (Age, Blood pressure, Clinical features, Duration of symptoms and Diabetes) score. However, despite its widespread implementation, the ABCD2 score has not yet been prospectively validated.^12,14–18 This essential step in the development of rules for making clinical predictions has recently been requested.^14,19–21The objective of this study was to externally validate the ABCD2 score as a tool for identifying patients seen in the emergency department with transient ischemic attack who are at high risk of stroke within 7 (primary outcome) and 90 days (one of the secondary outcomes).