Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change |
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| Authors: | M TRNKA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN K C KERSEBAUM A O SKJELVÅG J EITZINGER B SEGUIN P PELTONEN‐SAINIO R RÖTTER ANA IGLESIAS S ORLANDINI M DUBROVSKÝ P HLAVINKA J BALEK H ECKERSTEN E CLOPPET P CALANCA A GOBIN V VUČETIĆ P NEJEDLIK S KUMAR B LALIC A MESTRE F ROSSI J KOZYRA V ALEXANDROV D SEMERÁDOVÁ Z ŽALUD |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, Brno 613 00, Czech Republic;2. CzechGlobe – Center for Global Climate Change Impacts Studies, Po?í?í 3b, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic;3. Department of Agroecology and Environment, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK‐8830 Tjele, Denmark;4. Leibniz‐Center of Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Str. 84, D‐15374 Müncheberg, Germany;5. Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, PO Box 5003, N‐1432 ?s, Norway;6. Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter‐Jordan Str. 82, A‐1190 Vienna, Austria;7. INRA, Mission changement climatique et effet de serre, site Agroparc, domaine Saint‐Paul, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France;8. MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research, FI‐31600, Jokioinen and FI‐50100, Mikkeli, Finland;9. Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Avenida de la Complutense sn, 28040 Madrid, Spain;10. Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Firenze, Italy;11. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bo?ní II‐1401, 141 31 Prague, Czech Republic;12. Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet, Institutionen f?r v?xtproduktionsekologi, PO Box 7043, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden;13. Météo‐France, Direction de la Production, Division d'Agrométéorologie du département Services, 42, Avenue G. Coriolis 31057, Toulouse Cedex, France;14. Agroscope Reckenholz‐T?nikon Research Station, Air Pollution and Climate Group, Reckenholzstr. 191, 8046 Zürich, Switzerland;15. Environmental Modelling Unit, Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium;16. Agrometeorological Department, Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Gri? 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia;17. Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Jeseniova 17, 83315 Bratislava, Slovakia;18. Department of Geography, National University of Ireland, St Annes, North Campus, Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland;19. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia;20. AEMET (State Meteorological Agency of Spain), Leonardo Prieto Castro 8, Madrid 28040, Spain;21. Institute of Biometeorology, National Research Council, Via P. Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy;22. Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation – State Research Institute in Pulawy, Czartoryskich 8, 24‐100 Pulawy, Poland;23. National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, 66 Tzarigradsko shose Blvd., BG‐1784 Sofia, Bulgaria |
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| Abstract: | To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop‐growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop‐simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate‐change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate‐related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management. |
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| Keywords: | agroclimatic extremes agroclimatic index climate‐change impacts crop production environmental zones |
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