Trends of autumn counts at Iberian migration bottlenecks as a tool for monitoring continental populations of soaring birds in Europe

Migration monitoring may allow us to detect population trends over large geographic areas because the pattern of change in migrant counts may be expected to follow the pattern of change in population size. We analysed recent regional European population trends of migratory soaring birds from rates of change in migration counts over the Strait of Gibraltar (Spain) during the years (1999–2013). An additional bottleneck (Organbidexka, France) within the same migratory route and period was also considered. We estimated count trends by fitting a log-generalized linear model to the time series of each species counts. The counts in Organbidexka were used to test the consistency in the observed trends over the Strait of Gibraltar. Migration counts of White and Black Storks, Black Kites, Short-toed and Booted Eagles as well as Egyptian Vultures showed a linear increase over the Strait of Gibraltar throughout the 15-year period. In contrast, Honey Buzzard numbers remained stable. Trends were highly consistent with those recorded in Organbidexka. We suggest that the larger slopes for the trends in Organbidexka when compared with the Strait reflect an increasing tendency in these species to overwinter in southern Europe. A combination of complementary data sets collected at different bottleneck sites within the European–African flyway system may become a fundamental tool for the investigation of migratory patterns and population trends and changes of soaring migrant birds all over Europe.