Measures of family size preferences

This study is based on questionnare data from cohorts of women in England and Wales married once only in the 1950s and 1960s. It uses estimates of preferred family sizes derived from those achieved at various durations of marriage, using a Monte Carlo simulation model of reproductive histories, slightly modified in its representation of breastfeeding. The method of estimation consists in inverting the relationship between these 2 distributions (wanted and achieved births) which form respectively an input to and an output of the model. The model is explained in detail. The increasing preference for families of 2 children is shown in cohorts married in 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, and 1971 for women's ages at marriage 20-24 and 25-29. The trend is paralleled in the findings of World Fertility Surveys of 11 countries plus the US. Sensitivity to assumptions regarding contraceptive effectiveness is tested, and ranges established for estimates. The 2-child trend is discussed in light of theories relating individual and societal consciousness that 2 children are optimum from the points of view of family and societal welfare. On the family level the 2-child family has implications even over generations, with regard to family support needed for very young or old populations.