基于层次分析-有序加权平均多准则评估的雄安新区生态安全格局模拟研究

稳定、高效的生态安全格局对于"建设雄安新区"国家战略具有重大意义。然而,目前尚缺乏一套科学、弹性的规划方法,用于指导新区建设。采用层次分析(AHP)和有序加权平均(OWA)空间多准则评估方法,结合Google Earth Engine遥感云计算技术和InVEST模型,在量化生态系统服务和生态风险的基础上,模拟新区生态安全格局。首先,生态安全格局涉及众多专业领域,内涵较为丰富,决策过程应采用参与式方法,建立包含生态环境和社会经济因素在内的综合指标体系,奠定格局构建的决策基础;其次,AHP-OWA方法按不同决策情景(风险),提供了一整套"完全保护—中立—完全开发"的空间决策集,定量揭示"保护—开发"权衡关系,为格局构建提供充足决策支持;最后,白洋淀保护地以及启动和起步区建设,会对生态安全格局产生重要影响,所以构建工作应在科学规划启动和起步区建设的同时,围绕白洋淀开展。未来在"绿色生态宜居新城区"目标指引下,新区建设方案应以"保护优先"为基本原则,结合重要区域、现有规划和资金预算等要素共同确定,实现保护与开发的"双赢"。

Simulating ecological security patterns in the Xiong'an New Area based on the multicriteria evaluation of AHP-OWA

Xiong''an New Area, officially described as the millennium plan and one of the key national strategies, is a state-level new area in the Baoding municipality of Hebei province, China and was established in April 2017. It is located about 100 km southwest of Beijing and 50 km east of downtown Baoding. The Xiong''an New Area''s main function is to serve as a development hub for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic triangle. At the same time, the "non-core" functions of the Beijing city are expected to migrate here, including offices of some state-owned enterprises, government agencies, and research and development facilities. Within this context, the Xiong''an New Area raises higher requirements for ecological security. As such, stablely and efficiently ecological security pattern is significant to the national strategy of developing the Xiong''an New Area. However, a set of scientific and flexible planning methods that can be used to guide the development of the Xiong''an New Area is still lacking so far. This study uses the method of spatial multicriteria evaluation, namely, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA). Based on the quantification of local ecosystem services and ecological risks, the AHP and OWA are integrated with the cloud computation technology of Google Earth Engine for remote sensing images and the InVEST model to simulate the ecological security pattern in the Xiong''an New Area. First, ecological security pattern is an integrative field covering various disciplines. As a result, the decision-making processes should be participatory to correspondingly establish a comprehensive set of indicator system consisted of biophysics and socioeconomics. Second, according to different decision scenarios or risks, the AHP-OWA method provides a complete set of alternatively spatial decisions, ranging from full conservation and neutral to full development. This decision set can quantitatively reveal the tradeoffs between conservation and development and will strengthen decision-making processes for the construction of ecological security pattern in the Xiong''an New Area. Finally, the Baiyangdian protected area and the construction of the promoter and start-up areas will generate the significant effects on the ecological security patterns. Thus, efforts of pattern construction are suggested to focus on the Baiyangdian protected area while systematically planning the construction of the promoter and start-up areas. In the future, toward the objective of becoming green, ecological, and livable, the Xiong''an New Area development plans should set conservation priority as a basic principle while factoring key areas, ongoing conservation plans, and budgets to achieve a "win-win" outcome balancing conservation and development.