Lake Erie water snakes revisited: Morph- and age-specific variation in relative crypsis

Summary Populations of water snakes (Nerodia sipedon insularum) on islands in western Lake Erie are variable in colour pattern, consisting of unbanded, intermediate, and banded morphs. In contrast, mainland populations (N. s. sipedon) consist solely of banded morphs. Previous investigators hypothesized that natural selection favoured unbanded morphs on exposed island shorelines and banded morphs in overgrown mainland habitats and that gene flow from mainland populations was responsible for the persistence of banded morphs on islands. To clarify the potential role of natural selection, I quantified relative crypsis among morphs and age classes of water snakes by comparing the size of patches making up their colour patterns with the size of patches in island and mainland backgrounds. This analysis reveals that if unbanded morphs are more cryptic than intermediate and banded morphs on islands, it is only in the young-of-the-year age class. For older snakes on islands and for all snakes on the mainland, unbanded morphs are consistently less cryptic than intermediate and banded morphs. Given these results, the net direction of selection in island populations should depend on the intensity of predation on different age classes of snakes. Overall, selection may favour unbanded morphs (e.g. if predation occurs primarily on young-of-the-year), intermediate and banded morphs (e.g. if predation occurs primarily on older snakes), or be weak or absent (e.g. certain combinations of predation on young-of-the-year and older snakes). Using estimates of relative crypsis to guide reanalysis of morph frequency data, I find support for the hypothesis that unbanded morphs are favoured by natural selection in island populations.