野生大熊猫现状、面临的挑战及展望

截至2003年底，我国野生大熊猫种群数量达1596只，分布在陕西、四川和甘肃3省的45个县境内，总栖息地面积达2304991hm^2。与第2次大熊猫调查相比，野生大熊猫生存状况已得到改善，分布范围扩大、栖息地面积增加、种群数量进一步增长。本文在第3次大熊猫调查的基础上，就野生大熊猫种群及栖息地现状进行了分析，指出未来保护大熊猫所面临的3个方面的挑战，即来自物种自身生物学特性的挑战、栖息地破碎化及隔离小种群未来命运的挑战以及大熊猫保护与社区经济发展需求相冲突的挑战。作者还就我国大熊猫保护前景进行了展望，即自然保护区数量将进一步增加，栖息地状况将进一步改善；种群数量在总体保持稳定的基础上将逐步增长，但局部小种群灭绝风险将加剧；圈养种群将形成能自我维持的种群，圈养个体通过培训将逐步放归到隔离野生小种群中以改变其命运。

Status, Challenge and Prospect of Wild Giant Pandas

Based on the third nationwide survey of the giant panda, the total of wild giant pandas is 1 596, and is confined in 45 counties of Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces. The total area of habitats summed up to 2 304 991 ha. Compared to the second nationwide survey, the subsistence of wild giant pandas has been improved in recent years, which was represented by its wideness of distribution, improvement of the habitat quality and increase of total population size. The author pointed out that future conservation would be confronted great challenges, including from its own biological characteristics, habitat fragmentation and future fate of small isolated populations and conflicts between giant panda protection and development of local community economics. The author also proposed the prospects for the future giant panda conservation as follows: the total of nature reserve related to the giant panda will be increased and its habitat will be improved; the population of wild giant pandas will graduate increase, but extinction rate of some local small populations will be accumulated; the captive giant panda population will become self-sustaining and the reintroduction of captive pandas will be implicated in the near future.