Assessing the effects of multiple infections and long latency in the dynamics of tuberculosis |
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Authors: | Hyun M Yang Silvia M Raimundo |
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Institution: | 1.UNICAMP-IMECC. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada,Pra?a Sérgio Buarque de Holanda,Campinas,Brazil;2.USP-FM. Disciplina de Informática Médica,Instituto Oscar Freire, Rua Teodoro Sampaio,S?o Paulo,Brazil |
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Abstract: | In order to achieve a better understanding of multiple infections and long latency in the dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we analyze a simple model. Since backward bifurcation is well documented in the literature with respect to the
model we are considering, our aim is to illustrate this behavior in terms of the range of variations of the model's parameters.
We show that backward bifurcation disappears (and forward bifurcation occurs) if: (a) the latent period is shortened below
a critical value; and (b) the rates of super-infection and re-infection are decreased. This result shows that among immunosuppressed
individuals, super-infection and/or changes in the latent period could act to facilitate the onset of tuberculosis. When we
decrease the incubation period below the critical value, we obtain the curve of the incidence of tuberculosis following forward
bifurcation; however, this curve envelops that obtained from the backward bifurcation diagram. |
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Keywords: | |
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