Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions |
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Authors: | Catherine S Jarnevich Thomas J Stohlgren |
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Institution: | (1) Fort Collins Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building C, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA |
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Abstract: | Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used
existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and
temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species
distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide
conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how
the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated
with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. |
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Keywords: | Invasive species Climate change GARP Modeling Species distributions Climate variation |
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