Individual-based modelling of Pinus sylvestris invasion after grazing abandonment in the French Massif Central

In the Chaîne des Puys, a mid-elevation volcanic mountain of the French Massif Central, Scots pine proves to be an invasive species colonizing abandoned lawns or heathlands, and forms in a few years monospecific natural forests. Most of the abandonment occurred 30 to 40 years ago and this process has now stopped. Thus, we lack data on the very first phase of tree colonization. We anticipate that a simulation tool could bring an appreciable help in (i) rebuilding the entire colonization process – including the initial phase – of pine settlement and (ii) answering questions about the origin of the narrow and unimodal distributions of age of pine stands we observed. In addition, such a simulator could help managers to forecast extension of Scots pine and to predict growth and evolution of present secondary forests. A spatially explicit individual-based model is presented. The model takes into account both space and time and includes growth of trees, seed production and seed dispersal, death and competition between individuals. The influence of the initial parameters are analyzed and elements of validation given. The model was then used to predict tree settlement and stand establishment using the initial conditions from a natural stand studied in the field whose characteristics before abandonment were known (number and age-distribution of trees, location of mother trees, time of abandonment). Three simulations were achieved by using the same initial conditions but following different scenarios for the recruitment process. The scenario of a fluctuating resistance of the resident vegetation (that controls the susceptibility of the environment to tree establishment) seemed as one of the most probable to explain the actual stand characteristics. We thus concluded that dynamic models could be improved by taking into account the resistance of the vegetation to colonization as a fluctuating parameter instead of a static and permanent attribute.