Implications of climate warming on seedling emergence and mortality of African savanna woody plants

Seedling emergence from scarified seeds and mortality of different seedling cohorts of five African savanna woody species (Acacia polyacantha, A. sieberana, Bauhinia thonningii, Dichrostachys cinerea and Ziziphus abyssinica) were studied under field conditions at a site in central Zambia. The study was conducted over a 4-year period, from 2003 to 2007. The objectives of the study were to determine climate factors that significantly influence seedling emergence rate and mortality in order to assess likely responses of the studied species to a warmer climate. Mean seedling emergence rate was 12% in D. cinerea and Z. abyssinica, 17% in B. thonningii, 47% in A. poyacantha and 62% in A. sieberana. Climate factors did not significantly affect seedling emergence in A. sieberana while temperature significantly influenced seedling emergence rate in the other species. Under a 1° warmer climate, seedling emergence rate was predicted to decline in A. polyacantha, B. thonningii and Z. abysssinica but is likely to increase slightly in D. cinerea. Time of seedling emergence during the wet season did not appear to affect seedling survival. Temperature also significantly influenced seedling mortality in all the studied species such that under a warmer climate, mortality was predicted to increase in A. sieberana and D. cinerea but decrease in A. polyacantha, B. thonningii and Z. abyssinica. As the studied species exhibited differential optimum temperature conditions for seedling emergence and seedling survival, they are likely to respond to climate warming in different but predictable ways. The results of the study are useful to forest management and development of climate change adaptation strategies in southern Africa.