A simple model of growth form-dependent recovery from disease in coral reef sponges, and implications for monitoring

For clonal organisms that can suffer high levels of partial mortality and still recover, the conditions that influence infection and development of disease (e.g., abiotic stressors, population density) may be very different from the conditions that influence recovery. Recovery from infectious disease may increase if an individual can mount a defense before infection spreads throughout its body. If pathogens spread within an organism from an initial infection point, growth form—in conjunction with size—can influence the amount of time before all the tissue is diseased, and recovery precluded. A simple model of pathogen progression within individual sponges predicts that species with massive growth forms will be most susceptible to being overwhelmed by pathogen infection, and branching species will be most likely to recover. These predictions may help to explain the seemingly contradictory observations that branching species had the greatest prevalence of disease, and massive species the greatest rate of loss, in a monitored coral reef community. Disease may be observed disproportionately frequently in the organisms that are most likely to recover, resulting in underestimation, by standard monitoring procedures, of the effect of disease on losses from the community.