基于生态系统服务价值变化的环境与经济协调发展研究——以陕西省为例

为探讨生态环境与经济发展间的协调程度，选取2000、2005、2010和2015年4期的陕西省107个县（区）数据，利用单位面积生态系统服务价值和人均GDP构建环境经济协调度指数。结合空间自相关分析和空间杜宾模型等方法，分析了环境经济协调度指数的时空演变特征及驱动因素。研究表明：（1）从时间上看，陕西省环境经济协调度指数整体呈现缓慢下降趋势；从空间上看，大部分县（区）已处于基本协调和中度协调状态，并形成了陕北地区优于陕南地区，陕南地区优于关中地区的空间格局。（2）陕西省环境经济协调度指数具有显著的空间正相关性，高高集聚和低低集聚效果比较明显。（3）退耕还林工程、城镇化水平、产业结构、降水量是提升协调度指数的关键因素，气温则是制约协调度发展的约束要素。未来应因地制宜实施差异化的发展战略，以实现环境与经济协调发展。

The coordinated development of environment and economy based on the change of ecosystem service value in Shaanxi Province

In order to evaluate the coordination degree between ecological environment and economic development, we selected the panel data of 107 counties of Shaanxi Province in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, and built the coordination degree index between the environment and economy according to the per unit area change of Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The temporal and spatial evolution characteristic of coordination degree of environment and economy and its driving factor were discussed by using the spatial autocorrelation and spatial Dubin model. The results showed that:(1) The coordination degree index showed a downward trend during the study period. From the spatial perspective, most counties were still in a state of basic and moderate coordination. The coordination degree in northern Shaanxi was better than that in the southern Shaanxi, and the coordination degree in southern Shaanxi was better than that in the Guanzhong. (2) The coordination degree of the study area showed significantly positively spatial autocorrelation and obviously high-high and low-low agglomeration characteristics. (3) The Grain for Green project, urbanization expansion, industrial structure and annual average precipitation play significant roles in improving the coordination degree of environment and economy, while the average temperature will inhibit its development. In future, the differentiated development strategies should be implemented according to local conditions to achieve coordinated development of environment and economy.