A model to predict the presence of longfin eels in some New Zealand streams, with particular reference to riparian vegetation and elevation

Two logistic regression models were developed from a database of 27 biotic and physicochemical variables for 99 sites in the Taieri River, New Zealand, to predict the probability of occurrence of longfin eels. Average depth was associated positively with eels while woody debris and oxygen concentration were negatively associated. At a macro-scale probability of eel occurrence declined with increasing elevation and, for a given elevation, was higher in tussock and pasture catchments and lower in pine and native forest settings. Using a separate fish database for the Taieri River this macro-scale model predicted eel presence 95·4% in agreement with observation. A map was generated from the model showing areas of predicted high, moderate and low probabilities of eel occurrence. The model also estimated the minimum total number of eels present in the Taieri River catchment (excluding lakes, and streams below 100 m and above 1000 m) as 20 865 (95% CL: 10 560-36 350).