Spatial patterns of tree seedling establishment and their relationship to environmental variables in a cold-temperate deciduous forest of eastern North America

Patterns of seedling recruitment may have persistent effects on population and community processes. Assuming seed availability is not limiting, the environmental sieve (i.e., the suite of factors influencing seed germination and seedling emergence and survival) determines how many seedlings establish and, most importantly, where they do so. In this study, we identify the spatial structure of some resources and abiotic conditions known to be significant for tree seedling emergence and survival and determine how these environmental factors influence the establishment of Fagus grandifolia, Acer saccharum, Fraxinus americana, and Ostrya virginiana in a deciduous forest of southern Québec (Canada). We expect an increase from Fagus, through Acer and Fraxinus, to Ostrya in the control of environmental variables on seedling emergence and survival, because of differences in the seed size of these species. Density of newly-emerged seedlings of all four species showed positive spatial autocorrelation at distances of up to ca. 10 m. Environmental variables were also structured at the same spatial scale, except for soil moisture. Acer seedling emergence pattern was positively correlated to photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), and the pattern of Fraxinus to soil N and moisture. Seedling survival was not spatially autocorrelated for any of the four species, although it was positively density-dependent in Acer and Fagus. In only Ostrya was seedling survival correlated (positively) to one of the environmental variables studied, i.e., PPFD. Overall, environmental variables were spatially less heterogeneous than seedling emergence and survival. Either seed availability was not saturating or factors not considered here, such as competition and predation (the intensity of which often varies with resources and/or abiotic conditions), modified the influence that the physical environment had on patterns of seedling establishment. Our prediction of a greater environmental control on seedling emergence and survival in small-seed species was not totally confirmed.