Parental assignment in fish using microsatellite genetic markers with finite numbers of parents and offspring

Deterministic predictions for the proportion of offspring assigned to different numbers of parent-pairs are developed in order to investigate the power of microsatellite loci for parental assignment in fish species. Comparisons with stochastic simulation results show that predictions based on exclusion probabilities are accurate, provided that the number of parents involved in the crosses is large. Accounting for sampling of parents gave very accurate predictions for a small number of parents and a single biallelic locus. For large numbers of loci or large numbers of alleles per locus stochastic simulations are, however, the only available method to predict the power of assignment of a particular set of loci when the number of parents is small. Nine 5-allele loci or six 10-allele loci with equifrequent alleles, are sufficient for assigning, with certainty, parents to 99% of the fish resulting from either 100 or 400 crosses. Results simulating a set of highly polymorphic microsatellites developed for Atlantic salmon show that the four most informative loci are sufficient to assign at least 99% of the offspring to the correct pair with 100 crosses involving 100 males and 100 females. An additional locus is required for correctly assigning 99% of the offspring when the 100 crosses are produced with 10 males and 10 females.