海湾型城市生态系统服务权衡的情景模拟——以福建省泉州市为例

海湾型城市拥有丰富的海陆资源和较大的环境承载力,但人口和产业环绕海湾高密度聚集也让海湾型城市成为典型的生态环境脆弱区.本研究以典型的海湾型城市泉州市为例,基于土地利用数据、气象站点数据、地形数据和统计数据等多源数据,运用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型,设置自然情景、规划情景和保护情景,模拟了2030年3种不同情景下泉州市的土地利用及景观格局的变化,并进一步预测和估算了保水、保土、固碳(净初级生产力)和食物供给4种关键的生态系统服务功能及权衡关系.结果表明: 3种情景之下,2030年泉州市的耕地和建设用地面积增加,林地、草地和水体面积有不同程度减少,土地利用的破碎化程度加剧.与2015年相比,除保土服务功能外,泉州市2030年的保水、固碳和食物供给服务功能都出现了不同程度的下降;自然情景下生态系统服务功能的降幅更大,保护情景下的降幅低于规划情景.在保护情景和规划情景下,2030年的保水服务与保土服务、保水服务与固碳服务、保土服务与固碳服务的协同关系均增强,权衡关系减弱.

Scenario simulation of ecosystem service trade-offs in bay cities: A case study in Quanzhou,Fujian Province,China

Bay cities have abundant land-sea resources and higher environmental carrying capacity. The high density of population and industry surrounding the bay makes bay cities a type of ecologically fragile areas. With Quanzhou, a typical bay city, as an example, we simulated the land use and landscape pattern change in 2030 based on multiple data sources (land use data, meteorological site data, topographic data and statistical data) using Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model to set natural scenarios, planning scenarios and protection scenarios. Four key ecosystem service (ES) including water retention, soil conservation, carbon sequestration (NPP), food supply and their trade-offs were calculated and predicted. Under the three scenarios, the area of cultivated land and construction land in Quanzhou City would increase in 2030. Forest land, grassland and water area would be reduced in varying degrees. The fragmentation of land use would be serious. In comparison with 2015, except for soil conservation service, water retention, carbon sequestrtion and food supply of Quanzhou City would decline to varying degrees in 2030. Ecosystem service function in natural scenario would be more decreased, with the decline under the protection scenario being lower than the planning scenario. In the protection and planning scenarios, the synergy between water conservation and soil conservation, water conservation and carbon sequestrtion, soil conservation and carbon sequestrtion in 2030 would be enhanced and the trade-offs would be weakened.