四川省猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布预测及适生区域划分

为探明猕猴桃溃疡病在四川的适生性,选用MaxEnt模型,基于分布信息和环境变量,对该病在四川潜在分布区进行预测,分析主要环境变量对其分布的影响,并利用受试者工作特征曲线对模拟准确度进行评价.结果表明: 10次重复模拟的曲线下面积平均值为0.914,预测结果准确.猕猴桃溃疡病在四川的高适生区主要位于成都市、德阳市、绵阳市、广元市、巴中市、达州市和雅安市,中适生区在四川21地市州均有分布.刀切法筛选出影响猕猴桃溃疡病潜在分布的主要环境变量及其指标为:最冷月最低气温(-6.8～7.5 ℃)、最暖季度平均气温(15.6～32.3 ℃)、最干季度平均气温(-0.8～21 ℃)、年降水量(709～950.9 mm)和气温季节性变化标准差(4.7～9.6 ℃).本研究对制定猕猴桃溃疡病早期监测、预警及控制措施意义重大.

Potential distribution and suitability regionalization of kiwifruit canker disease in Sichuan Province,China

To detect the suitability of kiwifruit bacterial canker in Sichuan, a MaxEnt model based on distribution information and environmental variables was used to predict its potential distribution area and to analyze the impact of major environmental variables. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation. The average area under curve of 10 replicates was 0.914, which indicated that the predictive results were reliable. The highly sui-table distribution areas of kiwifruit bacterial canker were Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou, and Ya’an. All the 21 cities of Sichuan were classified as moderately suitable areas. The main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of kiwifruit bacterial canker as determined by Jackknife method were minimum temperature of coldest month (-6.8-7.5 ℃), mean temperature of warmest Quarter (15.6-32.3 ℃), mean temperature of driest quarter (-0.8-21 ℃), annual precipitation (709-950.9 mm), and standard variation of temperature seasonality (4.7-9.6 ℃). Our results are impotant for early monitoring, early warning, and developing control measures for kiwifruit bacterial canker.