Abundance estimation of the Northwestern Atlantic harp seal population

Summary A general method—the Least Square Index Method—for estimating marine mammal populations is developed and applied to the Northwestern Atlantic harp seals. Each age group is allowed to have their own vulnearability, catchability, and natural mortality. The age samples need therefore not be representative of the age structure of the animals on the hunting grounds. The abundance estimates are not dependent on the values of the natural mortalities. The sensitivity to fluctuations in the vulnerability and catchability is tested by simulation. This analysis shows that the estimate of the average pup production, , is robust, while the estimate of the rate of change in pup production is not robust. Consequently, only may be used in the assessment. A new method for estimating the average natural mortality may then be developed by starting a population projection with . The estimates obtained by the Least Square Index Method are: Average pup production in the 1960's: 400 000; Average natural mortality: 0.105; Pup production around 1980: 390 000.