Spatial Prediction of N2O Emissions in Pasture: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N₂O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N₂O – environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N₂O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m² field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N₂O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N₂O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N₂O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N₂O emissions across this study region.