Natural variation in the sexually selected feather ornaments of crested auklets (Aethia cristatella) does not predict future survival

We evaluated whether sexually selected crest and auricular plumefeather ornaments of crested auklet (Aethia cristatella) adultscovaried with individual local survival over 11 years (1991–2001).Crested auklets (n = 364 total) were captured near breedingsites, marked with color rings, and local survival estimateswere based on color ring resightings at a breeding colony. Survivalestimates and relationships among local survival and crest length,auricular plume length, mass and tarsus were evaluated usingthe program MARK. The best models included four groups, definedby sex and ease of resighting, that differed in resighting rate(p) but not local survival rate (). This model structure effectivelyexplained sources of variation in local survival and resightabilityamong individuals. The best fitting model showed local survivalrate varying annually, while accounting for differences in resightabilityof marked individuals between the sexes and groups (t], psex*easeof resighting]). Annual local survival varied from 0.940 ±0.029 (SE) in 1993–1994 to 0.767 ± 0.034 in 1997–1998and averaged 0.859 ± 0.019. We found no evidence thatcrested auklet local survival covaried with continuous variationin individuals' ornaments. Simulations indicated that our dataset was sufficient to detect a relationship between local survivaland a covariate that equaled or exceeded a range of 8%. Theimplications for competing sexual selection mechanisms of empiricallymeasured survival–ornament relationships are controversial,but our study emphasizes that survival estimates for such investigationsmust control for confounding factors such as resighting rateas well as have sufficient statistical power and time scaleto be biologically meaningful. Our results are most consistentwith the idea that the conspicuous variation in crested auklet'sshowy ornaments is arbitrary with respect to individual viabilityas quantified by their long-term survival.