Present and future extension of the Iberian submediterranean territories as determined from the distribution of marcescent oaks |
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Authors: | Rut Sánchez de Dios Marta Benito-Garzón Helios Sainz-Ollero |
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Institution: | (1) Botany Unit, Science Faculty, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Darwin 2, 28049 Madrid, Spain |
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Abstract: | The present work proposes new boundaries for the current submediterranean territories of the Iberian Peninsula, defining them
at the smallest scale attempted to date. The boundaries proposed are not sharp divisions but somewhat ‘gradual’, reflecting
the transitional nature of the territories they encompass. Climate change predictions were used to estimate how the distribution
of these submediterranean regions might change in the near future. The maps constructed are based on the distribution of marcescent
Quercus species—trees that characterise the submediterranean plant landscape where they form the main forest communities. To determine
their climatic range, the distribution of different types of Iberian oak forest was represented in ‘climate diagrams’ (ordination
diagrams derived from principal components analysis), both in terms of individual species and groups of species based on leaf
ecophysiological type, i.e. marcescent (Submediterranean), sclerophyllous (Mediterranean), semideciduous (Mediterranean) and
deciduous (Eurosiberian). The climate range of each type of forest was determined, and the means of representative climate
variables are analysed by one way ANOVA. The variables differentiating the forest groups were also examined by discriminant
analysis. The range of the climate variables found to be associated with the majority of marcescent forests was used to determine
the distribution of territories throughout the Peninsula with the same conditions (i.e. whether marcescent forests were present
or not), thus providing a map of the Iberian submediterranean territories. Predictions of climate change were used to investigate
possible climate-induced modifications in the boundaries of these territories in the near future. The patterns obtained show
dramatic reductions in the extension of the Iberian submediterranean environment. Submediterranean conditions will probably
disappear from the areas where they currently reign, and it seems unlikely that any new, large submediterranean areas will
form by displacement towards higher altitudes. The outlook for the unique submediterranean vegetation of the Iberian Peninsula
is gloomy.
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Keywords: | Marcescent Quercus Submediterranean Iberian Peninsula oak forests |
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