气候变化背景下紫楠在中国的适宜分布区模拟

为了解气候对紫楠(Phoebe sheareri)分布的影响,应用Maxent和GARP模型模拟了紫楠在当前气候下的中国适宜分布区,分析了影响其分布的主要环境因子,并预测了未来气候情境下其分布区的变化。结果表明,紫楠适宜分布在长江中下游及以南的各省区。影响紫楠分布的主要环境因子有年降雨量、最干季均温、降雨的季节性、相对湿度和6-8月的日照时数,这5个因子的累积贡献率达84.3%。在未来气候情境下,广东、云南、广西和海南等地区的适生区面积会显著锐减,而陕西中部、河南南部、安徽东部和江苏北部适生区面积会大幅度增加。因此,在未来气候变化背景下,紫楠的适宜分布区有向北扩张的趋势。

Predicting Suitable Distribution Areas of Phoebe sheareri in China under Climate Change

Predicting the potential geographic distribution of a species and its response to climate change is of great significance for the conservation of biodiversity and the sustainable development of ecosystems. Phoebe sheareri is widely used in building furniture because of its heavy weight, hardness, and uniform structure. However, because it has a weak natural ability to regenerate and because unprecedented damage has occurred in its natural habitat, wild germplasm resources are getting exhausted. In order to understand the effect of climate on distribution of P. sheareri, its suitable distribution region was simulated by using Maxent and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), the main environmental factors were analyzed, and the changes in distribution area under four climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that P. sheareri was suitable for distribution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and south provinces. Annual precipitation, mean temperature of the driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, relative humidity and sunshine duration from June to August were the main factors affecting the distribution of P. sheareri, and these factors contributed 84.3% of the variation. Under climate change scenarios, by both Maxent and GARP models, the suitable area in Guangdong, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Hainan would decrease significantly for this species, while that in central Shaanxi, southern Henan, eastern Anhui, and northern Jiangsu would increase. Therefore, under climate change scenarios, the suitable habitat would expand geographically to the north. These should provide a useful reference for the conservation and cultivation of Phoebe sheareri.