Modelling the spatial distribution of White Stork Ciconia ciconia breeding populations in Southeast Europe

Capsule Spatial environmental modelling well predicted nesting distribution of the White stork in Southeast Europe and can be used in conservation planning with respect to climate change.

Aims To create spatial models for predicting White Stork presence and densities in the Southeast Europe to identify areas of suitable habitat for White Storks.

Methods We quantified the habitat used by nesting White storks in Southeast Europe. Using spatial modelling, we defined a set of free and available online environmental variables that predict the breeding localities of the species. We employed pseudo-absences and the kriging of the residuals in order to create predictive models of nest presence and density.

Results The presence–absence model was found to be precise in predicting the presence of nests. Both density and presence of breeding pairs were best explained negatively by elevation, slope, minimum temperature during May, and distance to the nearest human settlement and positively by topographic wetness index, total area of human settlement and spring precipitation.

Conclusion Our robust and easily repeatable models offer a conservation tool to reveal suitable but unoccupied localities for breeding White Storks pairs which may inform our understanding of how climate change might affect the species' distribution in the future. For example, protecting White Storks on the Dalmatian coast may become even more significant in the future, because the Dalmatian coast is predicted as the only suitable breeding area in Croatia later this century.