ESTIMATING PUP PRODUCTION OF HARP SEALS, PAGOPHILUS GROENLANDICUS, IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

Photographic and visual aerial surveys to determine current pup production of Northwest Atlantic harp seals were conducted off Newfoundland and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during March 1999-Photographic surveys were conducted on all whelping concentrations between 14 and 24 March, whereas a visual survey was made of the southern Gulf concentrations on 14 March. Pup production was estimated to be 739,100 (SE = 96,300, CV = 13.0%) at the Front, 82,600 (SE = 22,500, CV = 27.2%) in the northern Gulf, and 176,200 (SE = 25,400, CV = 14.4%) in the southern Gulf (Magdalen Island) for a total of 997,900 (SE = 102,100, 10.2%). Changes in aerial survey estimates indicate that pup production has increased since 1994. A new method to correct for the temporal change in the proportion of pups present on the ice was examined by fitting the percentage of pups observed in three age-dependent stages to a Normal distribution. The results were compared to those obtained from a more complex model used previously. The Simple model produced slightly higher, and hence more conservative, estimates of the proportion of births that had occurred before the time of the survey than the Complex model. When using the Simple model fewer assumptions regarding the start date of pupping and the proportion of older pups remaining on the ice were required, the herd had to be followed for a shorter period, and a more convenient means of calculating confidence limits was available.