Comparison of Arrhenius-type and Bêlehrádek-type models for prediction of bacterial growth in foods

D.A. RATKOWSKY, T. ROSS, T.A. WCMEEKIN AND J. OLLEY. 1991. The development of Arrhenius-type ('Schoolfield') and Bêlehrádek-type (square root) models that describe microbial growth rates is briefly described. Both types of model have been advocated for use in predictive microbiology. On the basis of published data sets for the growth of bacteria, the consequences of mathematical transformation of data and the use of invalid stochastic assumptions upon model predictions are demonstrated. Mean square error is shown to be an inappropriate criterion by which to compare the performance of predictive models. The data show that bacterial growth responses such as generation time and lag time become more variable as their mean magnitude increases. The practical consequences of such variability for predictive microbiology are discussed.