基于承灾脆弱性与生态系统服务供需匹配的城市空间治理分区

城市空间普遍面临抵御灾害能力不足的问题。构建承灾脆弱性视角下的城市生态系统服务供需分析框架对提升国土空间抵御灾害的能力具有重要意义。以珠海市为例，选择与提升区域抵御自然灾害能力高度相关的生态系统服务类型，运用InVEST模型及遥感信息模型评估生态系统服务供给，构建承灾脆弱性评价模型评估需求，利用供需匹配分析识别亟需治理的风险区。研究结果表明：（1）珠海市生态系统服务有高供给高需求、高供给低需求、低供给高需求和低供给低需求4种供需匹配类型，各项服务供需失衡程度为土壤保持服务>水源涵养服务>台风灾害防护服务；（2）基于供需匹配类型和主导风险类型划分了四大类风险区，高危、中危、低危风险区和安全区面积占比为29.23%、21.70%、33.06%、16.01%，风险区等级与建设用地面积占比之间存在较好的对应关系；（3）根据风险区类别提出了多项风险综合治理区、双项风险复合治理区、主导风险专项治理区3种治理策略分区。生态系统服务供需匹配分析通过识别承灾脆弱性与承灾能力不匹配的热点区域，为区域/城市国土空间治理和增强国土空间抵御灾害的能力提供参考。

Zoning for urban space governance based on the disaster vulnerability and supply-demand match of ecosystem services

Urban areas face the problems of insufficient ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters. The purpose of this study is to construct an analysis framework of supply and demand of ecosystem services for identifying the risk zones in urban space governance. A perspective of carrying vulnerability of natural disasters was applied in ecosystem services demand analysis for improving the security level in urban areas. Taking Zhuhai in Guangdong Province, as a case study area, this study selected three ecosystem services, including water conservation service, soil conservation service and typhoon protection service, which play an important role in improving the ability of Zhuhai to resist natural disasters. InVEST model and remote sensing image analysis were used to evaluate the supply of ecosystem services. An assessment framework of carrying vulnerability of natural disasters was constructed to assess the demand of ecosystem services. Risk zones were identified by the degree and type of supply-demand mismatch. The results showed that: (1) there were four supply-demand matching types of ecosystem services in Zhuhai: high supply and high demand, high supply and low demand, low supply and high demand, and low supply and low demand. The dominant matching types of the three ecosystem services were all low supply and low demand. The degree of supply-demand mismatch in Zhuhai was soil conservation service > water conservation service > typhoon protection service. (2) Based on supply-demand matching degree and types, four categories of risk zones were classified. The proportions of high-risk zone, medium-risk zone, low-risk zone and safe zone were 29.23%, 21.70%, 33.06%, and 16.01% of the total study areas. According to the land use structure of the risk zones, there was a close relationship between the risk grades and the proportion of construction land. The risk grades were affected by the allocation of ecological, production and living space in the region. (3) The ecological security in high-risk zone was most seriously threatened and should be highly prioritized. According to the categories of high-risk zone, three kinds of governance zoning were proposed: multi-risk comprehensive governance area, double-risk compound governance area and dominant-risk special governance area. This study contributes to a new perspective for improving the match analysis between supply and demand of ecosystem services. By identifying the hot spots where the vulnerability to disasters is high and the capacity to withstand disasters is low, our framework provides a reference for the enhancement of the capacity to resist disasters and the urban territorial space governance.