High climate velocity and population fragmentation may constrain climate‐driven range shift of the key habitat former Fucus vesiculosus |
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| Authors: | Per R Jonsson Jonne Kotta Helén C Andersson Kristjan Herkül Elina Virtanen Antonia Nyström Sandman Kerstin Johannesson |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Marine Sciences – Tj?rn?, University of Gothenburg, Str?mstad, Sweden;2. Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Tallinn, Estonia;3. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrk?ping, Sweden;4. Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland;5. AquaBiota Water Research, Stockholm, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | Aim The Baltic Sea forms a unique regional sea with its salinity gradient ranging from marine to nearly freshwater conditions. It is one of the most environmentally impacted brackish seas worldwide, and the low biodiversity makes it particularly sensitive to anthropogenic pressures including climate change. We applied a novel combination of models to predict the fate of one of the dominant foundation species in the Baltic Sea, the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus. Location The Baltic Sea. Methods We used a species distribution model to predict climate change‐induced displacement of F. vesiculosus and combined these projections with a biophysical model of dispersal and connectivity to explore whether the dispersal rate of locally adapted genotypes may match estimated climate velocities to recolonize the receding salinity gradient. In addition, we used a population dynamic model to assess possible effects of habitat fragmentation. Results The species distribution model showed that the habitat of F. vesiculosus is expected to dramatically shrink, mainly caused by the predicted reduction of salinity. In addition, the dispersal rate of locally adapted genotypes may not keep pace with estimated climate velocities rendering the recolonization of the receding salinity gradient more difficult. A simplistic model of population dynamics also indicated that the risk of local extinction may increase due to future habitat fragmentation. Main conclusions Results point to a significant risk of locally adapted genotypes being unable to shift their ranges sufficiently fast considering the restricted dispersal and long generation time. The worst scenario is that F. vesiculosus may disappear from large parts of the Baltic Sea before the end of this century with large effects on the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We finally discuss how to reduce this risk through conservation actions, including assisted colonization and assisted evolution. |
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| Keywords: | Baltic Sea bladder wrack climate change connectivity dispersal fragmentation local adaptation range shift salinity species distribution model |
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