An Evaluation of Sources of Uncertainty in a Dredged Material Assessment

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency use a four tiered evaluation process to assess the potential for significant impacts from open water disposal of dredged material to the aquatic environment. This tiered approach requires only the appropriate level of analysis to estimate potential chemical and biological effects. Uncertainty is inherent in each tier and can lead to delayed, costly, and potentially inappropriate decisions. This paper discusses sources of uncertainty in the tiered approach with the goal of improving dredged material management decisions. These potential uncertainty sources are common to many dredging projects but might not be applicable to all projects. Although not all uncertainty sources can be quantified, even using the simple scoring procedure described here, they can still contribute significantly to uncertainty in predictions of adverse effects. Of the sources that could be scored and ranked, those identified as most uncertain include trophic transfer, chronic bioassay interpretation, fate and transport model parameter uncertainty, toxicity endpoints based on body burdens, human dose-response models, toxicity of complex mixtures, and estimation of population-level effects. Research directed at these sources of uncertainty will result in improved decision making.